The Secret to Tebow’s Wins
I have had more than one conversation about the Denver Broncos over the last couple weeks, mostly sparked by my post on judging a Quarterback by wins alone. The poster boy for this has been Tebow. His fans keep chanting 5-1 and his critics have been continued to be labeled “haters.”
Let me first address something about Tebow- he and fundamentally disagree on personal issues. But that has nothing to do with article. This is about factual data about the Denver Broncos.
First and foremost the biggest change in Denver has been the vastly improved defense. In the first five games this year Denver was averaging 28 points against per game. Since the bye week in a six game swing the defense has allowed 20 points per game. That’s a full touchdown better than they were. At first glance it is very impressive, but when you look at their schedule things become clearer.
Denver Schedule since Tebow OFF Rank. Record
Miami 21 3-8
Detroit 9 7-4
Oakland 12 7-4
Kansas City 27 4-7
Jets 24 6-5
San Diego 7 4-7
Denver has faced teams with a 24-31 combined record with Tebow under near center. And the offensive rankings aren’t great either. They played two top ten offenses, one they lost to badly, and they other is the 4-7 Chargers who have just been awful recently. So the defense has had some teams to beat up on. Meanwhile their first five games paint a different picture.
Oakland. 12. 7-4
Cincy. 18. 7-4
Titians. 20. 6-5
Green Bay. 4. 11-0
San Diego. 7. 4-7
In the first five games they played no offense worse than 20. In their last six games they have played 3 teams worse than 20. So scheduling has played a big part, but the defense has stepped up as well. Now, an argument can be made that Tebow’s 5.8 yards per rush is keeping the defense off the field and rested.
Certainly the rush has become a big part of their winning ways. In the first five games Denver’s offense averaged 21 points per game. In the last six games they average 19.3 points per game. That is a very negligible difference. The big 38-24 win against Oakland inflates his numbers a tad, (minus that game they average 15.6 points per game) but you can not just subtract games. The offense dominated that game and they deserve credit. Now let’s look at their first five games with defensive rankings.
Oakland. 27.
Cincy. 5
Titans. 17
Green Bay. 30
San Diego. 13
Their first five games they faced some average defenses. I will say that Cincy is high due to scheduling. I don’t think they deserve that ranking, but Denver did win that game under Orton. Meanwhile Green Bay being 30th is misleading. These rankings are by Yards Per Game, and a lot of teams put up meaningless yards up at the end of games against Green Bay. They are an aberration. I almost want to eliminate them from all of this due to them being perfect. Let’s look at their last six under Tebow
Miami. 16
Detroit. 10
Oakland. 27
Kansas City. 20
Jets. 8
San Diego. 13
The surprise here (other than San Diego being a ok defense and good offense and being 4-7. Wow) is that Tebow has faced some good defenses in Detroit and the Jets. Those game Denver scored 10 and 17 points respectively though. Other than those games the defensive opposition hasn’t been great.
So how have the Broncos been this good and won 5 or their last 6 games? Great scheduling, and putting a big wrinkle in their offense against bad defenses. John Fox has to be credited with great game plans against these teams. It will be interesting to see what he has in store for New England, a great team with a terrible pass defense.
Do we give Tebow credit? Of course. He is the quarterback of a 6-5 team that has won five of six. He is apart of that team and deserves credit. But as I’ve said before, quarterbacks get way too much credit for wins. I also do NOT believe in “intangibles” that make teams better. I think talent and work ethic make teams better. Tebow’s faith in his team mates will not make them run faster or catch more passes. And his faith in god is even more foolish of a reason. Tebow has done certain things well, he doesn’t fumble and doesn’t throw interceptions which have given his defense longer fields. His rushing has kept the clock moving and kept the opposing defense out on the field (even with a 23% third down rate his running and Mcgahee’s 4.1 per rush have given them a better offense and wore down the defense). So for what he is being ask to do, he is successful.
But soon Denver will have to do more. Remember the wildcat? Miami ran through teams until the league adjusted and now teams only run it every once in a while. Offenses like this are great in the short term, but long term the great teams will adjust and destroy it. You may be able to option on the 27th best defense in the NFL (Oakland) for nearly 300 yards rushing, but they won’t do that against Pittsburgh or Baltimore (and I don’t even think agains New England or Houston either). So time will tell what Denver can do. The sample size is still quite small.
